Total offshore wind capacity of 40GW, as well as the deployment of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, could lead to negative emissions in the UK power sector by 2033, according to research performed by National Grid ESO.
Greater Gabbard wind farm
Photo: DECCgovuk / Creative Commons Licence: CC BY-ND
The research concluded that net-zero emissions could be achieved by 2050 or earlier under the three or four scenarios covered by the ‘Future Energy Scenarios’ (FES) report.
Scaling up non-traditional sources of flexibility such as demand-side response and storage will also contribute to this projection.
However, immediate changes are needed to achieve this, including fundamental changes for energy consumers and new and key technologies and policies to be amended.
One way consumers could do this is by switching to electric-powered vehicles.
It is estimated that 11 million consumers will be driving electric vehicles on British roads by 2030, trebling to over 30 million by 2040 in the most liberal projections under this research.
By 2050, it is projected that up to 80% of households with an EV will be smart charging their cars, plugging in outside of peak times when energy is cheaper and demand on the grid is reduced significantly.
Some 45% of homes will actively help to balance the grid, offering 38GW of flexible electricity to help manage peaks and fill troughs in demand.
Energy efficiency also features fundamental changes in how houses are heated under these net-neutral scenarios.
These estimates predict that by 2050 many homes could no longer be using gas boilers and 20 million pumps instead, with as many as 8 million homes actively managing their heating demands by storing hear and shifting their use outside of peak periods.
National Grid ESO head of strategy Mark Herring said: “This year’s Future Energy Scenarios paint an exciting picture of net-zero Britain with electricity playing a crucial role in meeting the 2050 emissions targets.
“Although these are not firm predictions, we’ve talked to over 600 industry experts to build this insight and it’s clear while net-zero is achievable, there are significant changes ahead.
“Across all scenarios, we see growth in renewable energy generation, including significant expansion in installed offshore wind capacity.
He added: “There is widespread uptake in domestic electric vehicles and growth and investment in hydrogen and carbon capture technologies too.”
RenewableUK director of future electricity systems Barnaby Wharton said: “This report shows just how radically our energy system is set to change in the decades ahead.
“Renewable energy is taking us further and faster towards net zero emissions than anyone expected.
“But as this report notes, significant investment in low carbon electricity generation will be needed to make sure we get there.
Mr Wharton added: “National Grid is right to highlight the urgent need for Ministers to support the development of large-scale renewable hydrogen projects within this decade.
“Green hydrogen generated using electricity from offshore wind farms is set to be a game-changer for the energy sector, especially in decarbonising transport by providing fuel for shipping and HGVs, where emissions have remained stubbornly high, while also providing more flexibility in a high renewables system.”“We also need to move fast to annual auctions for Contracts for Difference to deploy the levels of wind and solar set out in this report to generate clean power for EVs and meet our net-zero goal”.
The FES looks at four credible pathways for the future of energy over the next 30 years, based on input from over 600 experts.
It is predicted that the recent pandemic will have adverse effects on the future of energy but the extent will not be seen for several years, with National Grid ESO hoping to examine it in next year’s report.
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