According to a new survey from the Center for Automotive Research, the number of new diesel SUV registrations in Germany has halved since the emissions scandal and introduction of diesel bans in major cities – causing headaches for those automakers who have invested heavily in this technology.
The study reveals that, in the first four months of 2018, the proportion of new SUV registrations fell to 35%. To put this in context, the annual figure had been stable at around 70% but last year dropped to 44% - meaning the number has almost halved since 2015 when ‘Dieselgate’ first broke.
One contributing factor to these figures is of course the ruling by Germany’s top administrative court in February that cities have the right to ban the most polluting diesel vehicles in a bid to improve air quality. So far, Hamburg has been the first city to do this but more are likely to follow.
Navigating the future
Diesel has generally been popular among SUV buyers owing to its higher fuel efficiency. For those German carmakers – such as VW, Daimler and BMW – that have staked a lot on diesel SUVs, turning away from it entirely will represent a significant challenge. (Although some are already making strong moves in this direction. As we reported today, Daimler in the US has recently unveiled two electric trucks.)
And they would also argue the issue is not so simple. While diesel is by no means the ‘cleaner’ alternative it was once believed to be, cars using this fuel still emit up to 15% less CO2 than petrol cars. This means they would contribute more to meeting the EU’s target of reducing its CO2 emissions from 130 grams per kilometre for newly registered cars to 95.
The above is what Germany’s auto industry players still invested in diesel appear to be pinning their hopes on. But this is to ignore the growing popularity of and investment in emobility. Many global carmakers – most recently Nissan – are already phasing out diesel production entirely, and focusing instead on the development on electric vehicles with a longer batter life. Audi will be launching its first electric SUV later this year, and five other global brands already produce electric SUVs, including the Kia Soul, Jaguar iPace and Tesla’s Model X.
Defenders of diesel would argue that more investment is needed in modernising diesel cars, rather than phasing them out entirely. “Those who want to put the brakes on modern diesels are getting further away from the CO2 target and are damaging efforts to protect the climate,” said the German auto industry association, the VDA.
Conversely, proponents of emobility believe there should be increased incentives to speed up the development of alternatives – mainly electric cars. Indeed, the German government has already been offering subsidies to those buying electric cars and has set a target of achieving one million on the road by 2020. For now, at least, it appears that the outlook for diesel is a bleak one.