Sales of electric vehicles in Europe are set to have trebled this year following a push by automotive firms to roll out new models to meet EU emissions rules, according to projections from zero-emissions mobility campaign group, Transport & Environment (T&E).
Kia e-niro
Sales of the Kia e-Niro have been sluggish due to the pandemic.
According to the group's forecast, one in ten new cars sold in Europe in 2020 will be electric or hybrid - a three-fold increase on the previous year.
The projections were made based on sales figures for the first and second quarters of 2020, and expected increases as auto firms race to comply with the tighter restrictions that will come into force next year.
“Electric car sales are booming thanks to EU emissions standards,” said T&E director Greg Archer. “Next year, one in every seven cars sold in Europe will be a plug-in.”
The new rules state that average emissions from vehicles must be reduced to 95g of CO2 per km, or face potential fines of billions of euros.
The first half of 2020 saw average emissions fall from 122g to 111g. This is the biggest six-month drop in over a decade.
As a concession to carmakers, to aid them in transitioning to the new regime, the EU excluded 5% of cars sold this year. However, next year every vehicle sold counts towards the total.
The concessions have been heavily criticised by environmental groups as well as the fact that CO2 emissions limits are not set to tighten again until 2030.
According to calculations by T&E, a number of auto companies are falling behind the new rules. In which case, the companies need a late spurt of EV sales, or to buy credits from a rival car firm that has already exceeded the rules otherwise, they face a hefty fine.
EV share 2019-21, T&E
Having benefited from a sharp rise in hybrid demand this year, Volvo announced earlier this month that it was open to selling its credits to rivals.
Daimler, which is partly owned by Geely - Volvo's parent company - appears to be lagging farthest behind its targets and is likely to need credits, according to T&E.
The coronavirus has also scuppered some auto firms' plans, delaying key model launches and denting demand. Volkswagen saw the launch of its electric offering slowed down and is behind target as a result.
Both Kia and Hyundai are also falling behind. Sales of the Kia e-Niro and Hyundai Kona have been delayed by Covid-19.
Toyota is close to meeting its targets thanks to its widespread use of traditional hybrids, which run a battery and engine simultaneously.
BMW has already met its targets this year, as has Renault.
T&E also issued a stark warning to the UK saying that the acceleration of EV adoption in the European Union is likely to dry up in the UK in the post-Brexit era due to a lack of regulations.
“The electric car is becoming mainstream but we risk turning off the tap in Britain. Carmakers will prioritise EV sales in markets where laws and tax breaks encourage them most, but the UK’s proposed standards are too weak and maybe too late," added Greg Archer.
"Government needs to quickly introduce regulations equivalent to the EU’s in 2021, or demand for electric cars will outstrip available supply and drivers will be left with long waits to secure their new electric car which will be more expensive.”
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