As President Andrzej Duda wraps up his two terms, there will be fresh opportunities for leadership in the country. Although the President's powers may appear limited, he has the ability to obstruct the government's legislative activities and complicate matters by refusing ambassadorial or judicial appointments that do not have his approval. So far, the ruling coalition has blamed all its failures on the lack of a favorable president. For the opposition Law and Justice Party, on the other hand, President Duda has become the only force blocking the government's progressive actions. Despite his relatively weak powers, the president in Poland has a very solid mandate, as he is elected by popular vote with an absolute majority.
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Although a number of names have already emerged, the leading political parties have not yet nominated their candidates. So far, only Szymon Holownia, the current Speaker of the Sejm, has announced his intention to run. However, no polls give him much chance. The main conflict will take place within the ruling Civic Coalition. Its leader, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has publicly stated that he is not interested in running for president. He has announced that primaries will be held within the party and has indicated two candidates: Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Both candidates are actively campaigning within the ruling party to gain support. The primaries are scheduled to be conducted electronically via SMS on November 22, with the results expected to be announced the following day.
All polls indicate that Trzaskowski is more likely to defeat the conservative opposition candidate during the election. While experts debate which candidates will receive the support of Prime Minister Tusk, Sikorski's candidacy appears to be introduced mainly to motivate Trzaskowski to put in more significant effort. This is evidenced by a recent visit to Poland by associates of President-elect Donald Trump. Influential figures, including former Secretary of the Army Ryan D. McCarthy and retired General James McConville, met with only President Duda and Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. They bypassed Radosław Sikorski during this meeting
The American guests have not engaged with other candidates, particularly those from the opposition Law and Justice party. To date, this conservative party has failed to identify a specific candidate for the presidency of Poland. The individuals mentioned are lesser-known figures who have not yet made significant independent political contributions. Law and Justice seems to be strategically waiting for the ruling party, Civic Coalition, to reveal its candidate, which may pave the way for a more competitive landscape in the upcoming election.