The 1.5°C goals laid out by the Paris Climate Agreement may not be possible unless developed nations end new oil and gas production by 2034, according to a top climate scientist from the University of Manchester.
Oil and gas pumps. Credit: Thaiview / Shutterstock
Developing nations may be given until around 2050 to phase out fossil fuels, while richer nations will have to act faster. Credit: Thaiview / Shutterstock
Professor Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research warns that there is no room for nations to increase production of new fossil fuel projects in the coming decade, but poorer countries may be given until 2050 to phase out fossil fuels entirely, depending on wealth, development and economic reliance on oil and gas.
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His report proposes different phase-out dates for oil and gas projects in line with the Agreement's goals and commitment to a "fair" transition.
However, the world's richest countries should seek to end new oil and gas projects immediately.
Developed nations currently produce around one-third of the world's oil and gas and should cut output by 74% by 2030, the report claims. The poorest, which only account for around one-ninth of the global supply, must try to cut back by 14%.
"Responding to the ongoing climate emergency requires a rapid shift away from a fossil fuel economy, but this must be done fairly", Professor Anderson, who also lectures at Manchester, said.
"There are huge differences in the ability of countries to end oil and gas production while maintaining vibrant economies and delivering a just transition for their citizens.
"We have developed a schedule for phasing out oil and gas production that – with sufficient support for developing countries – meets our very challenging climate commitments and does so in a fair way".
This call to end new fossil fuel projects echoes a similar report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) back in May 2021, which suggested "radical change" was needed en route to net-zero.
The report was conducted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has already begun negatively affecting energy markets and could "turbocharge" the European green hydrogen sector as the bloc looks to wean itself off Russian gas, which accounts for 40% of all the gas imported to the continent.
Anderson warns the war could cause further market turmoil and only exacerbate the energy crisis that has seen prices skyrocket since the winter.
"Had we spent the last twenty years establishing an efficient and sensible use of energy alongside a massive roll-out of renewables, we would not now be scrabbling around for alternative oil and gas supplies and facing the impacts of volatile prices. Now is exactly the time we should be planning for a renewable twenty-first century rather than reliving the oil-based twentieth," he added.
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The report was commissioned by Canadian think tank, the International Institute for Sustainable Development. It found some poorer nations are so reliant on fossil fuel revenue that instantly phasing them out could threaten their economic and political stability.
Countries like Brazil, South Sudan, Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon have little revenue outside of fossil fuel streams.
The "highest capacity" nations - effectively the richest - include Ireland, Denmark, the UK, the US, Japan and New Zealand and should stick to the 2034 goal.
The second bracket, the "high capacity" countries, which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Kazakhstan, should aim to phase out oil and gas by 2039 at the latest. Medium (China, Brazil, Mexico etc) and low capacity (Indonesia, Iran, Egypt etc) should aim for 2043 and 2045, respectively.
The "lowest capacity" countries, which includes all the developed nations reliant on fossil fuels for economic independence should gradually phase out use over the next decade before kicking it into overdrive in the 2040s, with the ultimate goal of being fully green by 2050.
Failing to adjust economies to meet the PCA's goals may have catastrophic climate effects. Extreme weather, from flooding to drought, could displace hundreds of millions of people.
Current estimates suggest global temperatures could surpass this threshold by 2035, with others warning that even the 2°C target will not be feasible under current conditions.
When the PCA was signed, it was generally accepted that wealthier nations should attempt to phase out high-emission energy as quickly as possible, although many of these countries pointed the finger squarely at coal.
As of writing, four EU nations have quit coal, with the Czech Republic having set a deadline of 2033 to remove it from its energy mix, and Germany bringing forward the date from 2038 to 2030.
“There is very little room for manoeuvre if we want to limit warming to 1.5°C," said Dan Calvery, who co-authored the study. "Although this schedule gives poorer countries longer to phase out oil and gas production, they will be hit hard by the loss of income.
"An equitable transition will require substantial levels of financial assistance for poorer producers, so they can meet their development needs while they switch to low-carbon economies and deal with growing climate impacts," he added.
The report also offers two more scenarios of reaching the PCA's goals. The first, which is more "ambitious" and offers a "67% chance of meeting 1.5°C" required the richest countries to phase out fossil fuels by 2031 and the poorest by 2042.
The second, which has a projected 50% chance of limiting temperatures to around 1.7°C - still below the PCA's less ambitious 2°C goal, would still mandate an end to oil and gas projects by 2045 in the richest nations.
This target is generally accepted to be the breaking point, when the effects of climate change may begin to spiral out of control.
It may still be up in the air as to whether the world's richest nations can band together to phase out oil and gas projects to keep even the 2°C alive, let alone its more ambitious 1.5°C counterpart.
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The proposed schedules for winding down oil and gas production depend on a rapid global phase-out of coal. Many of the world's poorest nations rely on coal for energy needs, with nearly three-quarters of the world's coal being produced and consumed in developing countries, the report suggests.
2022 must be the peak of coal production in the poorest countries, the report concludes, with it being gone from the global energy mix by 2040 in order to meet the PCA's targets.
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