The Polish plumber became one symbol among many for those people supporting Brexit. Overpaid, over-expectant – and over here. But for Germany and its neighbour Poland the battle lines are being drawn over the new labour force bogeyman from... Ukraine.
Employee-starved Polish businesses are worried that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians they rely on will be tempted by higher wages further west as Germany opens its doors to them.
“The panic is affecting mainly businesses in the farming and construction sectors relying on Ukrainian workers,” said Krzysztof Inglot, head of the Personnel Service employment agency. “People are often illegally employed in these sectors and these workers will go to Germany.” Inglo’s agency has recruited 9000 Ukrainians on behalf of Polish employers.
“But for those who are legally employed in Poland, there will be less incentive to move given the higher cost of living in Germany,” he added.
With many working for a few months and then going home, it is difficult to pin down exactly how many Ukrainians work in Poland, but estimates suggest more than a million.
They fill a yawning labour gap that emerged when some two million Poles sought better-paid jobs in western Europe, mainly Britain and Germany, after their country joined the EU in 2004.
The ‘Polish plumber’ became a potent symbol for Brexiteers campaigning for the UK to leave the EU. Now Ukrainian is the race tickling xenophobic nerve endings.
Poland’s Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers (ZPP) first sounded the alarm about a possible fresh labour exodus in November when it got wind of German moves to open the job market of the EU’s largest economy to non-EU nationals.
German business groups fully support draft legislation which aims to attract from abroad skilled vocational workers with German language skills and promises them eased visa procedures and reduced red tape.
Those looking for jobs such as cooks, metallurgy workers or IT technicians would be allowed to come for six months to try and find employment, provided they can financially support themselves. The Bundestag is expected to consider the legislation later this year.
Official statistics show that around 140,000 Ukrainians currently work in Germany, although the real number is likely higher as those who have obtained Polish visas can cross into Germany, where salaries can be up to three times higher depending on the type of job.
Competing for labour
With their workforces ageing, Poland and Germany are competing to fill labour gaps experts believe are bound to grow in the coming decades.
Poland has experienced expansion each year since it shed communism in 1989 and is one of the EU’s fastest growing economies. While its right-wing PiS government forecasts a 3.8 per cent growth in 2018, international institutions like the OECD are more bullish, predicting 5.2 per cent but warning that a labour crunch could slow that to 3.3 per cent by 2020.
But according to a worst-case scenario set forth by Polish employers, Poland’s GDP could decline by an estimated 1.6 per cent should half a million Ukrainian workers leave.
Germany currently has 1.2 million vacancies on its labour market. The nation of 81 million people is expected to need 12 million new workers over the next three decades.
The ZPP employers association estimates Poland, which currently has a population of 38 million, will need five million migrant workers by 2050.
For many Ukrainians, working abroad has become a lifeline. Living standards in Ukraine are well below that of its western neighbours and the nation is struggling with the economic and social fallout of the armed separatist conflict in its east.
Officials estimate 3.2 million of the country’s 45 million population have permanent jobs abroad while seven to nine million find work on a seasonal basis. They sent about €10 billion back home to their families last year, according to Sergei Fursa, a Ukrainian economist working for Dragon Capital investments.
Poland is a popular destination for Ukrainians seeking work abroad because it is close and has a similar culture and language.
But higher wages are tempting many to leave. Nearly 40 per cent of Ukrainians working in Poland said they are considering seeking work in western Europe, according to a survey by the OTTO Work Force employment agency quoted by Poland’s ‘Rzeczpospolita’ daily.
To avert a possible exodus, the ZPP wants the government to streamline procedures for hiring foreigners, to offer them permanent residence and even a path to citizenship.
Poland is slated to extend work visas from the current six months to a full year, Inglot said, adding that he hopes for a further extension to 18 months.
Similar measures are being prepared or have already been adopted in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, two smaller EU economies that are reliant on car production and are also facing shortfalls of workers.
Employee-starved Polish businesses are worried that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians they rely on will be tempted by higher wages further west.
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