Carbon removal and rapid decarbonisation could give the world a "50/50 chance" of meeting the 1.5°C targets set out by the Paris Climate Agreement, according to the latest report by the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC).
Reforestation. Credit: Elle Aon / Shutterstock
Natural forms of carbon capture, such as reforestation, could play a major role in actively reducing emissions early on in the fight against climate change. Credit: Elle Aon / Shutterstock
The report states that all sectors of the economy must be net-zero by the mid-century, currently in line with many nations' goals, with large slashes to emissions needed for the 2020s to help reduce global warming.
Read more: "A reasonable step forward, 6/10" - ETC's Adair Turner talks COP26
In addition, a 70% reduction in deforestation and halving coal use by 2030 are "particularly important priorities".
Anywhere from 70 to 220 gigatonnes of carbon removal will be necessary to limit net emissions in line with internationally-agreed climate goals. This can be achieved through a number of methods, from reforestation and improved soil management for the agricultural sector, to carbon capture and storage (CCS) later down the line when the tech becomes cheaper and scale-up easier.
So-called "natural climate solutions" (NCS) - any sequestering done through non-engineered means, such as replanting trees - should dominate early on due to their relative simplicity and low cost.
However, the report claims advances in CCS tech, which is currently expensive and ineffective in terms of raw reductions, will be used later on to reduce net emissions - with current estimates hinting the 2030s and 2040s could see significant scaling up of these technologies.
No single removal solution can be deployed in significant enough volumes to allow for the emissions reductions required, the report claims, suggesting a "portfolio approach" may be required, with solutions playing vital and complementary roles.
Currently, funding for emissions removal comes to around $10 billion per year, equivalent to just 10 megatonnes of carbon dioxide, or 0.1% of global emissions.
The ETC is calling for a "massive ramp-up of financial support from both governments and corporations" to scale removal in the coming decades.
Adair Turner
Lord Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission
"Unless we develop carbon dioxide emissions rapidly and on large scale – closing the gap in both ambition and funding between today's minimal level and what we need – it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C", said Adair Turner, the chairman of Energy Transitions Commission.
"It's not either or – deep decarbonisation or carbon dioxide removals. Both are essential, rapidly and at scale, if we are to avoid enormous harm to people across the world".
Supporting 3.5 Gt/year of removals in 2030 could require annual payments of over $200 billion per year, Turner added. Over the next three decades sequestering 165 Gt could require payments of around $15 trillion, equivalent to around 0.25% of projected global GDP over this period.
In contrast, the required investment in clean power is around 1.5% of GDP over the same timeframe.
The ETC suggests that voluntary carbon markets will play a role in the scaling up of carbon removals, but current projections estimate that only one-third of the necessary volume for 2030 will be met. As such, other measures, such as subsidies, funding and "market creation", such as emissions trading schemes, will aid in reaching these goals.
Corporations can also support the transition by pledging and attempting to meet their obligations laid out under certain schemes. Particularly ambitious companies could set out pathways to commit to 1.5°C.
However, the report also suggests carbon credits could play a role in aiding businesses with decarbonisation. Carbon credits are controversial as they can offer a way to allow for top emitters to continue to pollute.
That being said, the ETC urges carbon credits to shift towards removals and away from reducing emissions, which could no longer give companies a free rein to emit.
Read more: Global governments spend $1.8tn per year on harmful subsidies
Collaboration between the public and private sectors may be essential in ramping up carbon removals, particularly technological means such as CCS, and the adoption of renewable energy. Risks should also be managed by governments and regulators, which can allow for standardisation.
"In addition to rapid and deep decarbonisation, governments and corporates must work together, starting now, to scale up an ambitious and diverse portfolio of CDR solutions. As we look ahead to COP27, this is vital to delivering on commitments made in Glasgow and keeping 1.5°C alive", Nigel Topping, the UK's High-Level Climate Action Champion, said in a statement.
- The full "Mind the Gap" report can be viewed here.
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