14,000 scientists from 153 countries have come together to declare a climate emergency, with 12,000 of them warning of "untold suffering" if humanity fails to act on climate change, according to a paper published in the BioScience journal on July 28.
The report warns the melting point of the Greenlandic and Antarctic ice sheets may soon reach its "tipping point". Credit: Guillaume Falco / Pexels. (Licence: CC1.0)
The paper was lead by researchers from Oregon State University, and presents graphs of planetary vital signs that indicate very troubling trends, along with little progress by humanity to address climate change.
31 different variables for planetary health are listed in the study, which calls for "transformative change" in the face of humanity's continued use of natural resources and the burning of fossil fuels.
Read more: Carbon dioxide levels reach record high, despite pandemic
The journal notes a significant increase in climate-based disasters since 2019, including flooding in South America, wildfires in the US, Australia and the Amazon rainforest, the increasing potency of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical cyclones, and record heatwaves across the globe.
The report also claims there is "mounting evidence" of the Earth nearing or having reached "tipping points" for various systems, such as the melting of the Greenlandic or Antarctic ice sheets, the destruction of coral reefs and other issues associated with the Amazon rainforest, including deforestation, which has continued to rise for four years straight.
"Given these alarming developments, we need short, frequent, and easily accessible updates on the climate emergency," the report's authors said.
Of the 31 variables listed, 18 have reached record levels, the report claims, including the ruminant livestock population - cows, sheep etc - soaring past four billion, greenhouse gas emissions projected to increase from 14.4% to 23.2% between 2018 and 2021, having rebounded from the pandemic. Fossil fuel consumption has returned to its pre-Covid levels and ocean pH decreases and heat increases are dealing considerable damage to oceanic ecosystems.
"A major lesson from Covid-19 is that even colossally decreased transportation and consumption are not nearly enough and that, instead, transformational system changes are required, and they must rise above politics," the authors added. "Despite positive intentions to “build back better” by directing Covid-19 recovery investments toward green policies, only 17% of such funds have been allocated to a green recovery as of 5 March 2021."
The report also warns the 1.5°C laid out by the Paris Climate Agreement may already be impossible to meet - suggesting the remaining carbon budget may have as much as a 17% chance to be negative without "overshoot or risky geoengineering."
A coalition of wind industry players has penned an open letter to G20 leaders urging them to speed up renewable energy development.
Back in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that "drastic change" was needed in order to meet global net-zero goals, suggesting that all oil and gas ventures must cease in order to achieve full decarbonisation in time.
Read more: Radical change needed en route to net-zero, IEA warns
The report's scientists appear to concur with this notion, warning of a need for "drastic reduction in dangerous short-lived greenhouse gases", particularly methane.
Specifically, the report suggests six major areas for improvement.
The first is energy, with the complete divestment of fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy. The second is the removal of short-lived pollutants, slashing methane, black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons to limit the greenhouse effect. The third is the conservation of Earth's ecosystems to aid in carbon removal and to help restore biodiversity.
The fourth is shifting away from primarily meat-based diets, reducing food waste and improving cropping methods.
The fifth point focuses on moving away from a model of indefinite GDP growth and overconsumption towards ecological economics and a circular economy in which prices reflect the full environmental costs of goods and services.
The sixth and final point is reducing overpopulation through the implementation of family planning and providing equal employment and education for young women and girls, which it suggests could help lower birth rates.
Despite this, the report also indicates birth rates per woman are already at an all-time low, with fertility rates continuing to crash. The population rise could be attributed to places such as Africa or other developing nations which still see high birth rates compared to developed nations, mainly due to high infant mortality rates.
For example, countries like Japan and Spain could stand to see their populations halve by 2100.
The report also suggests a standardised and significant carbon price could help encourage some of the leading polluters to switch towards renewables.
One of the metrics measured as part of the study indicated fossil fuel subsidies have hit a record low, providing one hopeful indicator for the future, seeing a 42% decline from 2019 numbers. This is primarily due to wind and solar being cheaper than coal.
This report finds similar results to research from 2019 which garnered over 11,000 signatures from global scientists.
A report released in May also claims that cities are unprepared to deal with the effects of climate change and that severe weather and climate risks associated with catastrophic climate change could lead to severe damage.
Read more: Cities are unprepared for climate change risks, CDP warn
It hints that as many as 800 million people across 84 countries could be at risk should the proper infrastructure not be in place to mitigate climate disasters.
Another report indicates that $238 billion in economic losses can be attributed to climate change, alongside $63 billion in damages.
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