European countries are set to invest up to €2.82 billion by 2100 to avoid losing significantly more in climate-driven flood damage, an analysis by the EU Joint Research Centre has shown.
Flood defence
Annual costs will fluctuate between €1.75 and €2.82 billion will be required over the next 80 or so years – the cost depending on each state’s needs – and will be required to help mitigate the damaging effects of climate change, which is currently estimated to be able to cause a staggering €1.27 trillion in flood damages.
This new study, published by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, reflects the uncertainty of nations going green to help curb global warming or reducing or maintaining current carbon emissions, causing its estimations to contain wild fluctuations.
The rising of sea levels will be proportionally higher depending on trends in carbon emissions going forward. Moderate emission reductions will reduce thermal expansion of water and may only lead to a median 55 cm rise in sea levels, whereas higher levels may cause sea levels to exceed one metre.
Fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have been temporarily reduced by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, however, things are likely to spring back to normal once the worst of the virus is dealt with, with the potential for a short spike as social distancing measures are eased.
Michalis Vousdoukas, the lead author of the study, said: “In the wake of the pandemic, with government’s aggressively boosting economic recovery, emissions could remain at their pre-outbreak levels, rather than decreasing according to the Paris Agreement and the EU Green Deal plans.
“In this event, the projected costs of coastal flood mitigation would be closer to their higher bound."
According to the study, the present annual costs for coastal flood damage amount to roughly €1.4 billion (in 2015 Euros) per year across the EU. Global warming is said to exponentially increase this to €209.8 billion by the end of the century.
If the measures are taken, Europe could save either €200.1 billion (96% of coastal flooding costs) or €1.24 trillion (98%).
This would require raising coastal dykes by roughly a metre, on average. If the measures are not taken, this could prove a costly mistake for Europe.
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