- EBITDA before special items reaches €7.9 billion, which is at the level of analyst consensus (€7.9 billion) and slightly below the most recent figure forecast by BASF (€8.0 billion)
- Free cash flow of €0.7 billion considerably above analyst consensus (€0.4 billion) and above the range forecast by BASF (€0.1 billion to €0.6 billion)
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The BASF Group’s sales for the full year 2024 are expected to be €65.3 billion (2023: €68.9 billion). This is in line with the figure estimated by analysts on average according to Vara. While volumes slightly increased, sales prices declined but showed a steady price recovery throughout 2024 compared with the respective quarter of the previous year. Currency effects negatively impacted the sales development.
Income from operations before depreciation, amortization and special items (EBITDA before special items) for 2024 is expected to be €7.9 billion, which is at the level of the average analysts’ estimates for 2024 (Vara: €7.9 billion) and slightly below the range forecast by BASF in February 2024 of €8.0 billion to €8.6 billion. The most recent earnings expectation was at the low end of this range. In 2023, EBITDA before special items was €7.7 billion. The increase compared with the previous year was due to higher earnings in the core businesses, primarily driven by increased volumes. In the fourth quarter of 2024, however, the earnings momentum particularly in the Chemicals segment declined considerably; this segment only slightly exceeded the low EBITDA before special items of the fourth quarter of 2023. The Agricultural Solutions segment considerably increased its contribution to EBITDA before special items in the final quarter compared with the same period of the previous year.
Cash flows from operating activities are in the range indicated by BASF and are expected to reach €6.9 billion in 2024 (2023: €8.1 billion). Free cash flow is expected to be €0.7 billion in 2024, considerably exceeding the average analysts’ estimates (Vara: €0.4 billion) and exceeding the forecast range of €0.1 billion to €0.6 billion. Payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets rose considerably but were lower than expected. In 2023, free cash flow amounted to €2.7 billion.
EBIT of the BASF Group for 2024 is expected to be €2.0 billion, which is below the analyst consensus for 2024 (Vara: €3.2 billion) and below the previous year’s figure (2023: €2.2 billion). The main reasons for the deviation from the analyst consensus are non-cash-effective impairments, primarily on battery materials in the Surface Technologies segment, as well as restructuring costs in all segments. BASF is making good progress with the announced restructuring measures; they account for a significant portion of the special items. In total, special items in EBIT are expected to amount to minus €1.9 billion in 2024.
Net income of the BASF Group is also affected by these special charges. Currently, BASF cannot provide a figure for net income, as the contributions from a significant non-integral at-equity participation have not yet been received. BASF expects that the analyst consensus of €2.2 billion will not be achieved. However, the net income of €225 million for 2023 will be significantly exceeded.