The vehicles of the future - what's making change possible?

The energy transition has consumed every aspect of industry and the pressure is on to meet climate goals before the effects of climate change become irreversible.

One of the sectors set to change the most is the transport sector - from automotive to shipping, to freight and public transport, the face of the future may look very different compared to what may have been anticipated.

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But what about the vehicles of the future? Electric vehicles have come a long way in the past few decades and as consumers become more aware of the environmental concerns with the things they do in their everyday lives, the entire landscape is changing. Although costs have come down, there is still a ways to go before electric vehicles become more than a luxury item.

"I think the purview of customers is changing, but electric vehicles and other types of low-carbon transport are still quite expensive", revealed Alexandre Audoin, the global head of Automotive at consulting firm Capgemini.

"Generally, in larger cities, people are convinced of the switch away from fossil fuels. But adoption may lag behind in more rural areas where, perhaps, it may be more difficult to access convenient charging stations or where cars may generally be more expensive.

"It is a matter of progress - a step-by-step process. Gradually, these issues may begin to solve themselves as adoption across nations become more prevalent, as pressure and traffic from big cities become more electric and as supply chains and fleets begin electrifying."

Audoin, who has been at Capgemini for a little over a year, began his career as an engineer at Renault, before moving onto PSA and eventually Altran, where he stayed until 2020.

With countries such as the UK or Portugal planning or pondering bans on fully diesel or petrol vehicles over the coming years, the race is on to make low-carbon alternatives affordable and safe.

Audoin firmly believes that the swift adoption of electric vehicles is essential in bringing costs down as well as pushing innovations that make these technologies more efficient.

He stated there is a lot of room for opportunities to bring battery prices down including constraints, safety issues and thermal impacts on the car. Hybrid solutions may also be essential in aiding the transition away from fossil fuels, he added.

Read more: One-in-ten new cars in Western Europe were electric this year

"There may also be a matter of automotive companies reskilling their workers from working with traditional combustion engines to electric vehicles," he said.

A true glimpse into the future comes with the soon-to-come rise of autonomous mobility. Last year, the UK paved the way for autonomous vehicles on the roads. Germany's market may soon be opening, with Mercedes-Benz autonomous tech being approved by the government midway through December.

It has been suggested that autonomous vehicles may decrease congestion, primarily through the elimination of human error preventing rogue traffic jams or accidents, but this could be dismissed as wishful thinking until we have more information.

"I think we should have some form of autonomous solutions on highways, more so than cities," Audoin said. "There are currently many issues associated with developing clear and safe autonomous driving in cities in a context where there may be heavy pedestrian use or construction sites and the like.

"You still notice it in cars now, where they still make little mistakes, so it may be quite difficult to apply in denser areas for the time being."

One alternative being touted to electric vehicles is the use of hydrogen-powered vehicles. While this is primarily relegated to the aviation sector as an alternative to fossil fuels of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or traditional fossil fuels, it has seen some concepts within automotive and public transport.

Audoin stated there is a lot of potential for hydrogen in the automotive sector, although he says that hydrogen fuel cells or propulsion systems take up a lot of space in vehicle design that would not be done by batteries in electric vehicles.

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Because of this, he feels hydrogen may be better suited to larger vehicles, such as trains, truck fleets, or even shipping.

Even in 2020, which saw fossil fuel consumption levels dip due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdowns, transport still accounted for 24% of all carbon dioxide emissions, with much of these being attributed to ensuring global supply chains remain active.

The IEA claims two-thirds of transport emissions are due to road vehicles, with passenger and freight vehicles clocking the most environmental damage.

"If you imagine that in ten years' time 100% of transport is powered through EVs, there would be major issues regarding power supplies with demand dictating they be freely available almost everywhere," Audoin revealed.

"This is an unrealistic goal, and I think several different energy solutions may be the way forward for the entire transport sector".

He also believes public transport will inevitably be affected by increased electrification and the energy transition, particularly with the advent of autonomous vehicles.

The EU recently unveiled plans to "clean up" urban mobility as part of the EU Green Deal and Fit for 55 package to reach net-zero emissions. Recent innovations in fields such eVTOL seem to hint that the global marketplace for public transport is changing in favour of greener options although the sector still needs a lot of development.

Digital twinning technology could also make hubs more efficient, as seen with recent trials for the London Underground or the Aurrigo venture at Gerald Ford Airport in Michigan, US.

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"What we're seeing with public services that mobility is the aim of the game and the shift to greener and more efficient public transport is a pre-defined path," Audoin said. "Capgemini is currently working on several projects for public transport that involves self-driving vehicles".

"The point-A to point-B network works well within cities and companies are working on modifying things like existing railways to be more efficient and more advanced than we have today. A greener transport sector and more efficient and environmentally-friendly urban mobility are tightly linked".

The shipping sector currently accounts for around 2.5% of total carbon emissions and they make up an important part of international supply chains.

These chains have suffered heavily owing to the pandemic - exacerbated briefly last year by the Ever Given becoming lodged in the Suez Canal - which has led to challenges for the industry such as the semiconductor shortage.

"We've noticed some of our customers have looked to shipping to be part of this huge product demand as opposed to using automotive to transport goods," Audoin said.

"Many are also looking at addressing carbon emissions across their entire supply chains are a way of making operations greener or even reevaluating suppliers - or even finding more efficient forms of transport - to minimise emissions and decrease expenses."

Capgemini believes hydrogen may be the best solution to shifting away from fossil fuels in shipping.

Outside of EVs and hydrogen, Audoin also believes e-fuels, such as E-85 (made up of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline) may be the key to aiding in the transition away from fossil fuels. While not currently widely used, he believes diversifying energy markets is the way forward.

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He said: "E-fuels are a viable alternative as they allow you to use your current car, while CO₂ overall emissions, although we should keep in mind several energy sources may be the solution.

"This is definitely a short-term solution to allow for current cars to be better for the planet and will mean consumers do not have to potentially spend large amounts of cash on replacing their current vehicles".

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