Ursula von der Leyen narrowly elected as EU Commission President

The European Parliament has narrowly voted in support of German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen to succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission President. She will be the first woman to hold the post and the first German in over 50 years.

In a secret ballot, Mrs von der Leyen won support of 383 of the 751 MEPs, nine more votes than is required for an absolute majority, but still below the important threshold of 400 that would have provided a stable majority to easily get policies through parliament in the following five years.

Jean-Claude Juncker is to step down from his post and be succeeded by Mrs von der Leyen on October 31st, the same day that the UK is set to leave the EU. She has already said that she would be willing to delay Brexit further "for a good reason", though has said she there was no room for renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement already secured by UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

Following the announcement of her election, von der Leyen said: “The trust you place in me is confidence you place in Europe. Confidence in a united and strong Europe, from east to west, from south to north. The confidence in a Europe that is ready to fight for the future rather than fight against each other.”

Early Opposition

The announcement of the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen by EU leaders as their preferred candidate was not entirely welcomed by the Socialists and Democrats group at first. There was also scepticism from some members of her own group, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP). Her selection came following 50 long hours of negotiations, despite not being one of the 'spitzenkandidats', (lead candidates), who campaigned in the run-up to May's European elections.

Opposition to her candidacy appeared to soften, however, following a 30-minute speech she made on Tuesday morning where she made a succession of left-leaning, green-tinted pledges to win over Socialists and Greens, whilst also stressing the significance of being the first woman to receive nomination by heads of state and government.

“Exactly 40 years ago, the first president of the European parliament, Simone Veil, was elected and presented her vision of a united Europe,” Von der Leyen said. “It is thanks to you, and to all the other European icons, that I present to you today my vision of Europe. And 40 years later, it is with great pride that it is finally a woman who is the presidential candidate of the European Commission.”

Mrs Von der Leyen's "Green New Deal", which contains proposals such as an EU carbon border tax and a 55% cut in the bloc's emissions by 2030 (up from the existing figure of 30%), were not however enough to secure backing from Green MEPs. The co-chairman of the Green group was quoted as saying that there was not enough "green content" in her deal.

The price of winning

The narrow nine-vote majority is likely to be cause for alarm. Earlier on Tuesday, some within the Von der Leyen camp were confident of achieving over 500 votes. When only 383 actually materialised, eyebrows were raised.

Much attention will also be focused on the political parties who are outside the traditional EU mainstream and who lent their support to Von der Leyen, such as the around 40 MEPs from Italy's Five Star movement and Poland's Law and Justice party. The biggest question will be how much she will be beholden to them and Warsaw, in particular, may be expecting payback when portfolios are distributed to commissioners in her team. 

There have been some concerns by MEPs that a softer line will be taken with regard to rule of law when dealing with more authoritarian regimes such as Poland and Hungary. 

Mrs von der Leyen however appeared to be trying to allay those concerns when she told the Parliament: “Lady Justice is blind – she will defend the rule of law wherever it is attacked.”

Moving forward

The longer-term concern of the von der Leyen Commission may be parliamentary arithmetic. The European Parliament is more fragmented than ever and there seems to be little chance of a stable coalition between any of the three pro-EU groups necessary for a majority. This may be a block to Mrs von der Leyen's policy ambitions.

There are also external factors to consider. Her policy programme says little regarding in what way the EU should position itself with regard to the US-China trade war, and there is still a lack of clarity regarding her stance on Russia.

Further silence remains over the President-in-waiting's position on whether to reform the EU's competition and industrial policies, and little is known about her attitude towards further enlargement of the bloc into the Balkans.

The exact shape and future direction of the Von der Leyen Commission remains an unknown at this point, but as a close ally of Angela Merkel and the first German politician in the post since Walter Hallstein, who served from 1958 to 1967, it is expected by many to be a continuation of business as normal. 

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