The Amazon is now emitting more CO2 than it can absorb, scientists confirm

The Amazon rainforest is now, for the first time, emitting more CO2 than it can absorb, according to scientists at the National Institute for Space Research in Brazil.

The study found that the rainforest - once known as the "lungs of the world" due to the amount of carbon it absorbed - is now producing emissions of around one billion tonnes of CO2 per year.

The majority of the emissions are caused by fires, many of which were set deliberately to clear land for the production of soy and beef. However, even without the fires, higher temperatures and prolonged droughts have meant the south-eastern Amazon in particular is now a source of carbon rather than a carbon sink.

Read more: Amazon deforestation rises for fourth straight month

As the world's largest tropical forest, the Amazon has long played a key role in absorbing carbon emissions. Scientists now warn that this loss to carbon capture is a stark signal that the need to slash emissions is more urgent than ever.

The research was conducted using 590 vertical profiles, whereby small planes measured CO2 levels at heights of up to 4,500 metres above the forest over the last ten years, confirming that the entire Amazon was changing.

Prior studies which had also indicated the rainforest was starting to become a source of carbon dioxide were based either on ground measurement of trees - which covers only a small area of the enormous region - or on satellite data - which can be hampered by cloud cover.

The regions that had been deforested by around 30% or more showed an important change during the dry season from August to October, becoming drier and warmer for a longer period of time. These regions emitted 10 times more carbon than regions with less than 20% deforestation.

Read more: The Long and Winding Road (to Net-Zero)

Of particular concern to the researchers was the discovery that parts of the Amazon were now emitting CO2 even without fires. They believe this to be most likely a consequence of continued deforestation, with the fires making adjacent forests more susceptible the following year. With much of the region's rainfall being produced by trees, climatic effects such as droughts, heatwaves and tree deaths are being exacerbated.

The Brazilian government under President Jair Bolsonaro has been subject to heavy international criticism for encouraging further deforestation at a time when the rainforest was suffering its worst fires since 2007. The practice has surged since he took office at the beginning of 2019 and currently sits at a 12-year high.

His critics say that despite overwhelming evidence that the Amazon is being pushed to the point of no return, the far-right president is more interested in tapping global markets and placating the powerful agribusiness sector.

The rate of deforestation shows no signs of abating and the remaining safeguards are increasingly under threat. This week, Brazil's lower house is due to vote on controversial legislation that would legalise ownership of property that was illegally taken over and cleared before 2014. The proposed legislation - PL 510/2021 - has been dubbed the "land grabbers' bill" by environmentalists and indigenous rights activists.

Read more: UK food businesses warn Brazilian Congress over Amazon land bill

Earlier this week, the government handed over responsibility for the monitoring of forest fires to the National Institute of Meteorology, which is under the influence of the Ministry of Agriculture and the agribusiness sector. It had previously been part of the remit of the National Institute for Space Research, the scientifically credible organisation that authored the report and that had been carrying out the task for decades.

Earlier this year, Brazil's Congress also watered down the standards required for environmental impact assessments. Last month, the Constitution, Justice and Citizenship Committee gave its approval to a bill - PL 490/2007 - which has been described by its critics as representing the greatest attack on indigenous land rights since 1988, when Brazil launched its constitution.

All of these measures have further weakened environmental protections and scientists now suspect that the Amazon may be sliding into a series of vicious cycles that cannot be reversed.

Luciana Gatti, at the National Institute for Space Research in Brazil and who led the research, said: "The first very bad news is that forest burning produces around three times more CO2 than the forest absorbs. The second bad news is that the places where deforestation is 30% or more show carbon emissions 10 times higher than where deforestation is lower than 20%.

"We have a very negative loop that makes the forest more susceptible to uncontrolled fires."

Read more: Mercosur trade pact splits EU, threatening ratification

Much of the timber, beef and soy that is grown in the Amazon is for the export market. "We need a global agreement to save the Amazon," Gatti added.

Some European nations, including France, Ireland, and Luxembourg, have said they will block an EU trade deal with Mercosur - the South American trade bloc of which Brazil is a member along with Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay - unless the Bolsonaro administration agrees to do more to tackle the destruction of the Amazon.

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