World has 14 million EVs' worth of lithium, nickel in 2023, claims study

The world has enough available lithium and nickel to produce 14 million electric vehicles in 2023 even without Russian supplies, according to a new study by clean transport campaign group Transport & Environment (T&E).

The study, titled 'Why Europe can secure enough critical raw materials' and based on BloombergNEF data, urged governments in Europe to do more to shore up access to key metals to secure plans for the energy transition.

Read more: Europe's first major lithium project completes pilot

"War in Ukraine has shown that we must wean ourselves off oil. The best way to do this is to go electric. Despite what people say, there is no shortage of lithium or nickel in Earth’s crust. It is only a shortage of political will that leaves Europe vulnerable to supply squeezes," said Julia Poliscanova, senior director at T&E.

The campaign group also said that shifting to electric vehicles would be the "best way to punish the Putin regime for its illegal war in Ukraine", arguing that both nickel and lithium - unlike oil - are largely mined in democratic countries.

According to Statista, in 2021, Australia was by far the world leader in lithium production with an estimated output of 55,000 tonnes. Chile ranked second with 26,000 tonnes, with China coming third with 14,000 tonnes.

In terms of nickel, Statista found that in 2021, Indonesia was the world leader, producing 1 million tonnes. Ranked second was the Philippines with 370,000 tonnes, with Russia ranked third with 250,000.

While some have argued that there are not enough raw materials to switch to EVs in the short term, a problem that has been exacerbated by sanctions on Russian nickel, T&E disputes the claim. 

Read more: France's €1bn plan to secure battery metals

The T&E study shows that there would be enough lithium and nickel metals to make up to 14 million EVs globally in 2023 – 55% higher than the current market projections. In 2025, even if raw material supplies tighten and remain below battery factory capacity, T&E claims that 21 million EVs could still be produced – almost 50% more than market estimates.

Global EV sales more than doubled to 4.2 million vehicles in 2021 from just over 2 million in 2020.

Automotive consultancy LMC has forecast global EV sales will hit 9 million in 2023 and 14.2 million in 2025.

Prices of EV battery metals have skyrocketed over the last year with nickel reaching new records following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia - the third-largest producer of the metal.

T&E urged policymakers in Europe to strengthen diplomatic ties with other democratic nations like Australia, Canada, Indonesia and Chile and to begin talks with mining companies operating in those jurisdictions. The group calls for the creation of a dedicated EU authority to ensure a secure supply of sustainably sourced raw materials.

Read more: Key moment as first "Made in EU" li-ion battery produced

The effect of a tight commodities market on battery prices has caused genuine concerns about the effect it will have on the price of batteries - already the most expensive part of an electric vehicle. A long period of low prices has led to underinvestment in new metals mining, with pressure on prices exacerbated by supply chain disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. 

Nonetheless, T&E says that this situation is not expected to last for long, with mining and recycling companies reacting to the inflated prices by announcing expansions which should help stabilise prices in the coming years.

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