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Study: How many metals are needed for Europe's energy transition?

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Europe's energy transition requires 35-times more lithium and between 7 to 26-times more rare earths than its current supply, and there is skyrocketing demand for the other types of metals also needed for the energy transition, according to a new study from KU Leuven.

Other problematic metals, such as cobalt and nickel, also need to see significant supply increases due to the demand for electric vehicle batteries and consumer electronics, and suppliers will have to get ahead of the curve to negate further disruptions like those seen with the ongoing chip shortage and supply chain issues associated with the coronavirus pandemic.

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The "Metals for Green Energy" study, commissioned by the European association of metal producers Eurometaux, states that greater supplies of copper (a 35% increase on today's use), silicon (45%) and aluminium (33%) will also be vital in the production of the wind and solar energy and hydrogen infrastructure that form the backbone of the European Green Deal.

However, regardless of the relatively bleak news that Europe's supply of metals is lacking, the data also suggests at least 75% of this demand could be met through metals recycling by 2050 - the net-zero deadline - with the potential to save the bloc billions of euros. The data suggests as many as two-thirds of Europe's cathode demand could be met through recycling.

In addition, by the time materials reach the recycling stage, much of their negative environmental effects will have been spent, which is another way the sector could see overall reductions.

That being said, the EU will face other significant pitfalls should mining, refining and recycling products not be able to provide enough metals for the various projects. Reliance on imports will be very expensive.

With the bloc having revealed plans to wean itself off Russian gas, insights into alternative energy sources such as heat-to-energy and geothermal being in their early stages and some political opposition to nuclear energy, especially in Germany, the EU has a number of challenges to overcome if it is to meet its climate goals.

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In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning in 2021 about the role "critical minerals" will play in the building of new infrastructure.

This is doubly so given the current energy crisis, that was originally linked with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war.

More specifically, the study reveals the European Green Deal will require the following:

“Although the EU has committed to accelerate its energy transition and produce a great deal of its clean energy technologies domestically, it remains import-dependent for much of the metal needed,” the study says.

“And there is growing concern about the security of supply," it adds.

While this may seem like a simple task of importing, many of these materials, particularly cobalt and nickel, are considered "conflict minerals" - minerals mined in conflict zones, often through the use of both child and adult slave labour - which many Western companies have actively begun boycotting.

This had led to schemes such as "controlled zones" in a bid to source these metals ethically.

In addition, shortages of nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths and copper, in particular, could cause significant production delays from 2030 onwards and the study predicts demand will peak by around 2040.

Read more: New EVs may face production delays from 2027 as lithium capacity lags

Europe has seen some strides in battling lithium demand in the face of the shortage. Projects such as Zinnwald Lithium mean supply from within the bloc can start to be addressed.

In addition, many chipmakers, such as Intel, have invested significant funds into upping the supply of semiconductors, which are used in EV batteries and electronics products. Optimisations of manufacturing or overhauling of chemical formulae could lead to a reduction in demand for these critical minerals.

“Europe needs to decide urgently how it will bridge its looming supply gap for primary metals. Without a decisive strategy, it risks new dependencies on unsustainable suppliers," Liesbet Gregoir, the study's lead author said.

With an interim goal of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030 on the table, change will need to happen rapidly.

"A paradigm shift is needed if Europe wants to develop new local supply sources with high environmental and social protections. Today we don’t see the community buy-in or the business conditions for the continent to build its own strong supply chains. The window is narrowing; projects really need to be taken forward in the next two years to be ready by 2030," she added.

China and Indonesia will dominate the refining market, the study suggests, and Europe is still heavily reliant on Russia for aluminium nickel and copper. The data suggests domestic mines could cover a significant portion of its metal needs - particularly regarding lithium and rare earths.

Read more: Schaeffler signs historic first European rare earth supply deal

Metals mined in Europe also mean fewer emissions on transport and shipping.

Partnering with responsible suppliers may be key, and this change should happen quickly, it adds. Overall, all of these metals account for 3% of global emissions, which may be something else to consider.

However, technological developments over the next decade and beyond could change several of the variables listed in the study, particularly the amounts of minerals required. As such, it is imperative that studies into transparency continue as global powers look to implement climate goals.

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